What is the weather in Bali each month?

Every Bali weather chart shows the same thing: thirty degrees, every month, forever. That is true and useless. Here is what actually differs.

The four things that change

1. Rain, which is seasonal and heavily afternoon-weighted.

2. Humidity, which is what makes February feel heavier than July at the same temperature.

3. Wind direction, which decides whether the west coast or the east coast has clean surf.

4. Sea clarity, which follows the rain because runoff clouds the water near river mouths.

Temperature is a constant: expect roughly 27 to 32 Celsius by day and 22 to 25 at night, at sea level, all year. Ubud runs a degree or two cooler and noticeably wetter. Munduk, Bedugul and the crater lakes are properly cool at night and can sit under cloud for days.

January

The wettest month with February. Heavy afternoon and overnight rain, high humidity, occasional two-day systems. Rivers run brown and the water near river mouths goes murky. East coast surf is good. Prices are low after the first week. Green everywhere.

February

The other wettest month, and the quietest for visitors. If you want an empty island at a discount, this is it. Expect at least a few afternoons rearranged by rain and the odd full day lost.

March

Rain tapers through the month. The second half often feels like early dry season. Nyepi usually falls here, which closes the island for a day and is worth planning around either way.

April

The transition month, and an underrated one. Rain is mostly gone, humidity is dropping, crowds have not arrived and rates are still below peak. Sea clarity improves week by week.

May

One of the three best months. Dry, clear, moderate wind, excellent visibility for diving, and manageable crowds. Villa rates sit below June to August.

June

The best all-round month in my view. Reliably dry, comfortable humidity, consistent west-coast swell, and the crowds only build at the end of the month.

July

Peak season begins. The weather is excellent and so is everybody else's idea. Traffic in Canggu, Seminyak and Uluwatu is at its worst, villa rates at their highest, and restaurant bookings become necessary.

August

The busiest and often the windiest month. Strong dry-season trades can chop up even the west coast in the afternoons and blow sand across the beaches in Seminyak. Still dry, still hot, still full.

September

Crowds fall away in the first two weeks, weather stays dry, and the sea is at its clearest. Mola mola season around Nusa Penida usually runs through this month. If you missed June, come now.

October

The last dry month, warming and getting more humid, with the first thunderstorms often late in the month. Prices are low, the island is quiet, and the light is very good.

November

The wet season starts, usually as short violent afternoon storms rather than all-day rain. Humidity climbs. A good-value month with a real chance of getting mostly dry weeks.

December

Wet, humid and cheap until about the 18th, then the most expensive and most crowded fortnight of the year. Rain through Christmas is normal and nobody who books it seems to expect that.

What the numbers hide

Bali's rain is not distributed evenly across the island. The south — Canggu, Seminyak, the Bukit — is drier than Ubud, which is drier than the central highlands. Munduk and Bedugul can be wet while Uluwatu is in full sun, forty kilometres apart. A wet-season trip that plans two nights in the mountains is planning to be rained on.