What occupancy do you need to break even on a Bali villa?

Usually 40–55% just to cover costs. Below that you are funding the property out of your own pocket.

Break-even occupancy is the most useful single number in a villa deal, and almost nobody calculates it.

It answers: how full does this need to be before it stops losing money?

Why it matters more than yield

Yield tells you what happens if everything goes to plan. Break-even tells you how much room you have when it does not.

A villa that breaks even at 40% has a wide margin. One that breaks even at 70% is a coin toss against Bali's low season every single year.

How it is calculated

Your fixed costs, staff, utilities, upkeep, do not fall when the villa is empty. Staffing in particular continues whether guests arrive or not.

Your variable costs, platform commission, the 10% regional tax, management fees, refurbishment reserve, scale with revenue.

Break-even is where revenue after variable costs finally covers the fixed ones.

For a villa with roughly USD 1,200 a month of running costs, 16% platform commission, 10% regional tax, 20% management and a 5% refurbishment reserve, break-even typically falls between 40% and 55% occupancy, before any lease amortisation.

The calculator computes it for your actual figures.

The number that moves it most

Staffing. It is the largest fixed cost and the least flexible. A villa with a full team breaks even far higher than one with part-time cover, and that decision is made before you ever take a booking.

Add the lease and it changes again

Break-even above covers cash costs. On a leasehold there is a further annual amount being consumed, the premium divided by years remaining.

Include that and true break-even climbs sharply. On a short lease it can exceed 100% occupancy, meaning the property cannot cover its full economic cost at any occupancy level.

That is not a rare edge case. It is what a 20-year lease at a 30-year price produces.

What to do with the number

Compare it to the area's realistic occupancy, not the seller's projection
Test it against a bad year, a quiet season, a competitor opening nearby, a platform algorithm change
Ask what happens at 45%, because at some point there will be a 45% year

If a deal only works above 70% occupancy, it is not an investment. It is a bet on never having a bad season.